Kentucky appears to be on track for a winter that may be warmer than usual, although forecasting snowfall presents challenges due to various factors, including an anticipated weak La Niña event set to develop from November through January.
This week in Lexington, residents can look forward to predominantly sunny and warm conditions. However, be prepared for a significant likelihood of showers arriving Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. Initial findings indicate that Lexington is facing a November that is warmer than usual.
The most recent three-month forecast, released by the Climate Prediction Center on October 17, indicates that Kentucky is expected to experience warmer-than-usual temperatures from November to January.
In the Bluegrass State, this indicates a likelihood of 33 to 40% for experiencing above-normal temperatures during that timeframe. While it may not be certain, it suggests a shift towards a generally warmer winter for Kentucky.
Regarding rainfall, there is no significant bias toward either outcome, making it equally probable for the Bluegrass State to experience below or above-average precipitation, according to the CPC forecast.
The National Weather Service in Louisville has indicated that a mild and short-lived La Niña event is likely to develop this fall, with a 75% probability of continuing from November through January.
La Niña, which translates to “the girl” in Spanish, is a climate event triggered by lower-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The fluctuations in sea surface temperatures of this vast and influential ocean can lead to significant disruptions in global weather patterns.
In the United States, a La Niña usually brings warmer and drier conditions to the Sun Belt region, whereas the northern areas tend to see cooler and wetter weather. This is probably not the most encouraging update for the central and southern Plains areas of the U.S., where drought conditions are anticipated to intensify as a consequence.
According to the NWS outlook, drought conditions in the Ohio Valley, including Kentucky, are expected to improve or potentially vanish entirely.